Please pull up some popcorn for this one.
Last night one of my best friends called me up asking what was going on in the economy. We went to undergrad together where she studied to become a nurse, we’ll call her Buffy, or B for short. Buffy took Econ 101, Micro-economics, and pretty much loved it. Unfortunately it was impractical at the time for her to double degree so she let it go. I love hearing myself talk so she let me do an econ mind dump on her because of one question: Why are gas prices so high?
Yay, I Get To Hear Myself Talk For An Hour
Gas prices are getting higher because the real and perceived value of the entire economy is coming into question. I know, that’s a big statement to make requiring big words to back them up, and dammit, I like big words! The problem is that big words are easily used to con people so I’ll stick to the little ones. What I mean is that we are having “a crisis of confidence” in our economy. Okay, what that means is that all the people who have loaned us money (China, Japan, Europe, the UK, Canada, and the Middle East) think that we are about to run out on the check.
Check? What Check?
Over the last 200 years the US has been a very productive country. More productive than most actually. We invented, or stole and said we invented: automobiles, cars, light-bulbs, telephones, televisions, radar, computers and software, etc… Basically we invented a lot of crap that a lot of people wanted. All things being equal, we’ve done a really good job of MAKING things, including services. All over the world, people have looked at our track record and felt like we are consistently a better bet than other industrialized nations, and in many cases a much better investment than developing countries. All over the world people loaned us their cash and in general we used that money to create stuff that people wanted and made even more cash. Happy joy!
Printing 101
The scorecards for economies can get really complicated, involving acronyms like GDP, CPI, PPI, etc… All valuable ways to get confused. But how do we do it in shorthand? The value of the US dollar versus the Yen (Japan), Pound (UK), Euro (Um. Europe), Renminbi or Yuan (China), Peso (lots of places), and the Loonie (Canada!) are a really simple way to measure what everyone thinks a country is worth versus another country. The currency is like the stock market for countries. Sure, it’s a little more complicated than that but you really don’t want to get into it. If each country starts out with a 10 slice pie of their own currency you’d be able to tell a lot about the quality of that country by watching what happens to those exchange rates.
Each country does its own thing. Results vary due to geography, history, culture, laws, etc… Let’s pretend that the US in this instance is very successful at bringing things to market, products and services that their people really like and subsequently Canada wants to buy from us. All they have to give is Loonies. Sure they could send us a Moose or something else that’s a little harder to trade with. But we can’ t do anything with Loonies. McDonald’s is not going to take a Loonie. So what do we do? We establish a rate of exchange based on what each country believes the other is worth. The US pie of 10 slices grew bigger than the Canadian pie.
(First person to bring up the gold standard gets a smack to the face and gets dragged off into a dark alley.)
But we only have 10 dollars pies to exchange with. If we give them 5 slices of the dollar pie then what are people going to use? AH-HA! EUREKA! BINGO! I got it. Since their Loonie pie is clearly worth less than our Dollar pie we could make thinner slices. It would bring down the value of the other dollars but it would actually be better for everyone because there are more slices to go around. We are actually worth more. And when I mean print it’s not a metaphor or analogy. We print two more dollars. The value of each one could drop but realistically we’re all better off because the pie got bigger.
Hmm…. Canada says. Those wacky Yanks just printed money. We many not be able to make as much stuff as they do but if we could just print more money wouldn’t that make us all richer? Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. So they do it. It’s cool for a while. Nobody notices it. But eventually even the dummies start figuring out that these two pies are not equal. The US had a really big pie so instead of slicing huge slices they made them thinner. But each slice is still big. Canada instead had a smaller pie with more slices.
So what happens next? When the US, and by extension every other country in the world, figures out what Canada has been doing they get pissed. They decide that the exchange rate is going to have to increase to compensate for the thinner slices of the pie. The next morning all the Canadians wake up and figure it out that it costs more Loonies (Hah, Loonies!) to buy gasoline because the real value isn’t there, it’s just make believe increases in money. So basically, Canada get’s smacked upside the head by the invisible hand of Adams Smith fame. At my Alma Matars econ department we had one of these “Invisible Hands”, not “The Invisible Hand”, but I think an 17th century prototype of it in a glass box. Pretty amazing.
You would think that someone would make up a name for something like what happened to Canada. And sure enough if some wacky economist at some point borrowed the word Inflation when he saw some pervert in a clown costume blowing up balloons shaped like (insert inappropriate finish).
Seriously You Talk Way Too Much, She Says
Everybody with me? If not please go back up and re-read all that crap because I’ve almost got a point about gas prices that’s kinda neat. If oil, the basis for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, almost all plastic stuff including toys and tupperware, asphalt, etc. is priced in Loonies (Loonies!) and we all agree about the pie thing, then should oil cost more? We all agree that Canada just made Loonies out of thin air with no real reason for it. But oil is a “Thing”. It’s a commodity. It does stuff. You can’t just print oil.
The US has always borrowed money. It just happens that this time we’ve borrowed more than ever before, like that cousin who maxed out the credit cards and comes over to bum a few bucks to fill up the Escalade. The thing is that most of the time we paid it back. Sometimes though we did what we’re doing now. We’re trying to run out on the check.
Inflation is created by the Federal Reserve, an independant entity outside of the US government, and the US Treasury, the guys with the giant printing presses. It happens whenever the Fed and Treasury decide that we can go on a shopping spree. We did it in the early 70’s when Nixon and his spineless Federal Reserve Chairman, Arthur Burns, created the inflation that killed us in the late 70’s and early 80’s.
When Nixon wound down the Vietnam War our debts were catching up with us. You see war, as much fun as it’s made out to be, cost money. It’s a big government program, welfare for contractors if you will. War is great for states like Texas and horrible for anyone who is not making ships, planes, bullets, and all the other things the warrior class needs to conquer. War makes you poor. Say it with me now: WAR = POOR.
After WWII, when everyone else on the planet had been blown up, we were it. We could make anything and nobody else had the factories that we had because they got bombed by somebody else. Suddenly we found ourselves in this lucky place where we were making everything for everybody. But the US wanted to be the good guys. We rebuilt Europe and Japan because it was the right thing to do and helps us. Destroyed countries can become difficult to deal with, like Afghanistan or Sudan or Rwanda. It doesn’t always work though. Europe and Japan may have been ridiculously special cases for reasons I’m not going to get into. The myth that War = $$$$ was born out of WWII. If you look at every other war that we’ve ever fought there was nothing like the boom after WWII. Usually there was a recession not too far behind.
In 1978 Paul Volcker became Fed chairman. Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan started the great interest rise that stopped inflation from killing us. The policies were followed by Greenspan until Bush II. Reagan, who I don’t hate, don’t love, don’t really care much about either way, decided to lower taxes too far as a way to stimulate economic growth. You see whenever you hear the rhetoric of lower taxes at all costs the idiots forget to mention a few things. For instance it is not lower taxes that brings economic growth. It’s lower taxes + lower expenditures all other things being equal. You know a budget. Reagan realized too late that Congress would never lower expenditures. HE RAISED TAXES TWICE. TWICE!!! TWICE!!! REAGAN RAISED TAXES TWICE!!! In 1982, that’s right boys and girls, two years after he was in office he realized he’d been conned. The second came from the Social Security Tax in 83 (Paul Krugman, New York Times, 06/08/2004).
Sorry I had to do that. I did agree that taxes were too high prior to Reagan but he also realized they went too low with the major cuts that came through. These tax cuts came from a DEMOCRAT controlled congress. After Reagan, Bush Sr. continued to raise taxes and was fired for it. Clinton finished it in the 90’s with a REPUBLICAN congress in charge. Wow, our government can occasionally solve a big problem or two. By the time Clinton came around we could start paying off the debt, inflation was a joke, and we had a massive economic expansion. Teamwork baby, teamwork.
Gas Prices What?
Bush Jr turned out to be not so bright on Economics. I’m not saying he’s dumb, but it’s like he only looked at the comic strips in “Econ For Dummies”, and maybe the Cliff Notes. Up above, where I was talking about pies and Loonies, that’s what happening with us.
Bush II did not follow the prescription set out by Volker, Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr., and Clinton. Instead he dropped taxes, raised expenditures, started a new war, raised expenditures some more. I don’t know what happened to Greenspan when Bush came in. Maybe he thought that Bush would whip congress into shape and therefore we could afford to lower taxes. I think Greenspan got conned by Bush. Or maybe he thought Bush was a new Reagan incarnate. I’m not here to defend or attack Greenspan. Once he realized that the party wasn’t going to stop post Dot-Com bust and 9-11 he started raising rates but it was too late. Without an economic team of the caliber used by Reagan, Bush Sr, and Clinton, there was no way to help with just interest rates. It just wasn’t enough. I’m not saying the Bush team sucks. I’m saying they may be the worst economics team since Nixon and good old Arthur Burns, that punk. But the rot starts at the top. On Bernanke, I second guess the PHD but I think he’s screwed. Not his fault really.
Conclusion
LBJ blew (Vietnam ate a lot of cash and American lives), Nixon blew, Carter blew until Volker, Reagan was decent, Bush Sr was decent, Clinton was decent. Bush Jr royally blows. Economics only, I’m not talking about any other policies anywhere.
The Magic 8 Ball Says
We’re screwed. Inflation’s back. The deficit is huge. Oil is going up and I’ve got no clue how high. The new stimulus package will make it worse. We owe loads of money so we decide to give ourselves a bonus? Where in the world does this make sense?